Hybrid or SUV?
Imagine being a fly on the wall in the Chrysler board room in 2001. Margins were jumping as sales of SUVs boomed; times were good. If management used a statistical forecast based on the previous years’ shipments to predict the future, they would be told one thing: Build more SUVs!
We all know the story: 5 years later (about the time it takes to get a car from design to market), Toyota Priuses were selling like hot cakes and Chrysler was heading toward bankruptcy. Clearly, running your business on a statistical forecast could cause you to miss future trends.
It would be equivalent of driving by looking in the rear view mirror.