Tag Archives: demand planning

Sales Forecasting Pain and Success: It Starts with the Process

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

For most organizations, sales forecasting is a time-consuming painful process that results in very little value. As stated in a blog I recently read, the typical process goes something like:

  1. Collect the forecast from sales reps, and assemble in a spreadsheet
  2. Roll-up forecast to managers who apply their subjective judgment
  3. Roll-up manager forecast to VPs who apply their own personal bias
  4. Roll-up the VP forecast to executives, who change it because it is too low
  5. Hand over the forecast to operations and finance who toss it in the garbage because they don’t trust it and it’s not timely enough to make an impact to production or planning.

(more…)

A Well-Rounded Sales Forecast

Friday, November 6th, 2009

Hybrid or SUV?

Imagine being a fly on the wall in the Chrysler board room in 2001. Margins were jumping as sales of SUVs boomed; times were good. If management used a statistical forecast based on the previous years’ shipments to predict the future, they would be told one thing:  Build more SUVs!

We all know the story: 5 years later (about the time it takes to get a car from design to market), Toyota Priuses were selling like hot cakes and Chrysler was heading toward bankruptcy. Clearly, running your business on a statistical forecast could cause you to miss future trends.

It would be equivalent of driving by looking in the rear view mirror.

(more…)

Visibility Into the Present or Visibility Into the Future?

Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

I recently read a research summary (Sorry, they’ll make you register if you want to view it) jointly published by SAP and Industry Week. The summary and survey results were quite useful, but let’s wait to discuss those.

The SAP branding was fantastic. Attached to the end of the research summary, is a full page ad of a gentleman staring out over a clean, brightly lit factory floor. The bold SAP tag line reads “In a clear new world/you can see far into the present.”

This is great stuff. If you buy SAP software, you get clear visibility into what is happening on your shop floor right now. You will have visibility into how many parts are spinning off the production line and the current value of inventory. SAP delivers software that “runs” your business on a day-to-day basis; so, logically, it promises they give you clear visibility into your day-to-day business. I’m not being sarcastic; this is critical information for executives. If you are running SAP, SAP is probably the best software to provide you visibility into your day-to-day business.

However, ask yourself, how do you maximize your decisions? Are your decisions based on what is happening right now or are they based on what will happen in the future? Let’s make it personal, imagine making these decisions:

  • How many Xboxes do you build for launch?
  • How many people do you hire next quarter?
  • How do you reduce your inventory levels?

Do you make these decisions based on the number of Xboxes churning off the production line right now? Or the number of employees currently in your organization? Or the current value of your inventory? Surely, that information factors into your decision, but what information is key to your decision?

Imagine how your decision would change if you:

  • Knew the market demand for Xboxes upon launch
  • Knew your revenue next quarter (to plan hiring)
  • Knew how many units will ship next quarter (to plan inventory)

How do you make your decisions?

Executives make decisions based on what they think will happen in the future. They use current data to influence those decisions, but the best data would be an accurate sales forecast. If executives were armed with a trusted forecast, then they could confidently make decisions that deliver better business results.

Back to that SAP and IW research summary: the subject was “collaborative demand and supply planning.” One of the key takeaways of this study was the importance of forecasting. SAP and IW summarize the results: “forecasts should be continuously improving to be more accurate. If this is not happening, it will hold back all other significant improvements to supply and demand planning.”

The research speaks: companies demand a view of the future. If SAP gives you clarity into the present, who delivers clarity into the future? Who delivers a clear forecast?

Right90 does.

Right90 delivers a trusted, actionable forecast. Companies are using Right90 to get a clear and trusted view of the future, so that they can confidently make critical business decisions and reap better business results.